It used to be that a large group needed leaders because it couldn't vote on things fast enough or easily enough. But with a simple web interface, it can now make decisions for itself, and in real time too. And that's not all:
To test the value of human swarms, researchers at Unanimous A.I. enlisted groups of novice users and asked them perform a number verifiable intellectual tasks. For example, these groups were asked to make predictions about the winners of the NFL playoffs, the Golden Globes, the Super Bowl, the 2015 Oscars, the Stanley Cup, the NBA finals, and most recently the Womenâs World Cup. In all cases, the predictions made by swarms were more accurate than the predictions made by the individuals who comprised the swarms. In fact, the swarms consistently performed better than even the most skilled individuals in each group. The swarm also exceeded the tally of âvotesâ given by the groups, trumping the traditional methods of characterizing populations. In short, initial testing suggests that human swarms do more than reveal the âwisdom of the crowdâ â they can unlock the collective intelligence of populations.
A swarm consistently outperforms its best members. A swarm made up of regular people will even outperform the average expert:
We took 50 regular movie fans, just average people, and we had them first predict as individuals who they thought would win each of the categories, and then we had those same 50 people work together as a swarm to predict the same set of Oscars.
And what was remarkable is that individuals were on average 44 percent accurate, which doesnât sound great, but itâs actually really hard to predict the Oscars, thereâs a lot of categories. But when those same 50 people worked together as a swarm they jumped all the way up to 76 percent accurate, which was almost double the accuracy when they were working together as a system. And whatâs even more interesting is that we can also look at professional movie critics, because all that data exists. The average professional movie critic was 64% accurate. So what we saw is that these 50 average people were able to amplify their intelligence to the high end of expert level performance.
Here's what I propose:
Get a mixed group of artists to agree to work together.
They either poll their subscribers or involve them in the swarm in order to decide what they'll be collaborating on.
The artists move to a smaller swarm to hammer out the outline and plot.
Next they write the novel or script using a wiki.
If this is a comic, the artwork takes shape through a similar approach. Start with several sketches, vote to keep a few, and work on the survivors until it's time to vote again.
Each artist takes turns posting chapters under their own names. This creates a roving audience that will boost everyone's subscriber count.