(Sorry for this question) Are you afraid of WW3 and economical crisis?

[authorvicomara]

I'm really scared, because I live in Europe and I don't see things ending in a good way. For many reasons. It would take probably an hour to write everything up, so I'll try to summarize:

I see only 3 scenarios where this madness would end in a good way and relatively fast:

1. Somebody with access to the evil Putin and his cronies sacrifices himself and eliminates them all quickly. This probably will not happen because everybody with access to the inner circle is either bought off with millions and billions of $, are heavily monitored/threatened or they're not emotionally ready to sacrifice themselves and their family.

2 . Russian people rise as a unified nation, overthrow the whole evil government, KGB and military. The West hope for something like this (or at least - removing the mad president), however, it's not gonna happen soon, if at all, because Russian people are victims of systematic repression and propaganda/brainwash that happened for decades. There are thousands of people who go to the streets to protest, however there are millions who keep their heads down or support the government because they are scared for their families, their own life and because complying to survive is the only coping mechanism they have.

1. Every country and company all over the world completely cut off Russia. Completely. In everything. But that's not gonna happen, because Russian government has allies all over the world and because a lot of countries/politicians/companies are either directly/indirectly dependent on them (including bribes/threats).

The world is not united against the evil, therefore evil strives.

I don't think things will end in a good way (if at all) anytime soon because of:
1. Immense greed. Many countries and many financial institutions all over the world hold billions and trillions of shady money (and other assets) that belong to Russian government or those supporting them. Switzerland, Dubai, UK, Cyprus, etc. The list is long. They care more to line their pockets than about injustice and dying people - which means the evil people can continue to have money bribe, hire more cronies, corrupt, or threaten more people. The rich continue to silence their conscience with money, the poor continue to get used and abused.
2. Vast corruption. Evil people have hundreds of billions stashed away. Hundreds. of. Billions. Because of point 1, they can continue to bribe, provide 'incentives', show 'thankfulness' or 'appreciation' and therefore corrupt more people, corrupting politicians, CEOs, etc. The more people are in their pockets, the more direct or silent support the evil people have, the harder and time-consuming it is to fight them.
3. Refusal to acknowledge that KGB has their tentacles spread over many countries all over the world, including media channels and politicians, etc (e.g. Fox News in US, other channels in Europe). KGB plays a strategic and long-term game and until its tentacles are ruthelessly cut off, the destabilization will continue. US is close to a civil war because of this, dirty populists all over the world are gaining power in governments destabilizing countries further, etc.
4. Lack of balls to make unpopular and swift decisions. Russian government/KGB is easily willing to sacrifice millions of people (in their own country and abroad), it's a no-brainer for them, they don't care who needs to be sacrificed as long as their agenda is accomplished. Everyone else with a shred of humanity and conscience - cares, and that's why the West is always playing defense when dealing with Russian government.

So yeah, because of the above (and there's much more, but the post is already too long) I'm really scared.
In my scenario, it would be good if the people in Russia would overthrow the government and would immediately split into 7-10 smaller countries (separate nations declaring the long needed independency) + return territories to several countries that were occupied years ago. That's the only way how I see some semblance of piece for everyone, because otherwise the KGB will put another sadistic crony into power and the story will repeat itself all over again. But my scenario is not gonna happen as well.

I think unless a miracle happens and the world miraculously unites with swift actions against Russian government (which is unlikely to happen because of 'sympathetic' governments in China, Syria, Serbia, Hungary, Turkey, Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea and many more), WW3 is inevitable. It has already started behind the curtains, and it's only a matter of time before it happens openly.

[Zhengo]

To be honest, when you put down those scenarios, I only see the first one as even a remotely good end.

Revolutions are highly romanticized, but many lives are lost in the process, and they've rarely ended with a new stable and better government that doesn't end up installing another despot in power. Putin himself rose to power while Russia was democratized and abused the loopholes and corruption in the government to remain in power.

Complete isolation may pressure Russia in the short term, and may pressure the oligarchs to do something about Putin, but it's a tight rope to walk. The longer that sanctions and isolation persist, the more control the government will have on the public opinion of the people, now that they don't have access to sources outside of their country. North Korea is an ongoing example of this. I have little hope that the current pressures are working now that Putin seems like he's completely willing to isolate Russia, seeing that the government has announced it's nationalizing foreign assets in the country, and even taking initiative themselves by banning foreign media and social media services from Russia.

[authorvicomara]

Yes, Zhengo, I absolutely agree that there's no easy scenario/good outcome.

There are sufficient examples where the rise of the nation ended into something good. As the quickest example, that's how many countries in Eastern Europe gained their independence from Russia. But the people need to postpone their personal greed/ambitions/wellbeing and be ready to fight till the end and even sacrifice themselves for that. It does not seem to be the case for Russia yet. Maybe at some point in the future, we can only hope.

I don't think Russia could turn into 2nd North Korea, for 4 main reasons: immense country size, various resources that other countries will intensely continue to trade with Russia for, hundreds of billions that Russian government gathers every year. It cannot be isolated like North Korea.
Out of 146 millions people in Russia, a good chunk of them are used to various commodities the West provides, including travelling and sending their kids to western colleges, etc. If everything gets cut off, that will create a lot discomfort, many will not wish to return to 1980s.

Sanctions work if there is unity in applying them. If Switzerland, Dubai, China and other 'neutral' or 'sympathetic' countries and companies continue to help Russian government in bypassing the sanctions, then it will take muuuuch longer for the sanctions to achieve the goal they were intended to.
The pressure is working - there is some evidence of that already. The problem is that instead of a relatively swift resolution it will probably be a long and very painful process. A long process during which Russian government unfortunately will have time to abuse their own people and influence/bribe/threaten/destabilize other countries and governments.

[fsarbolaez]

We'd be kidding ourselves if we only blame the Russian government for the Ukraine conflict. This is a war of oligarchs, (both Russian and Western,) who are using the institutions ment for the people to sacrifice Ukrainians and dupe Russians for their own shady gains. Though Russia is clearly the aggressor here, it still doesn't let the US and its NATO allies off the hook for a history of actions that gave Putin the excuses behind his actions today. (Which is a laugh, because the "denazification" Putin talks of could easily be applied to a bunch of his cozy relationships with the fash. In fairness, the nazi problem is an actual problem Russia, the former Eastern Bloc countries, and the West have. Remember Jan 6th.)

To say this will end with the removal of Putin, ignores that he came to this point from the backing of Russian oligarchs, and they will likely do the same with the next. It ignores that western oligarical powers have been pushing to open Ukrainian markets to foreign investors so they could exploit the area, and they've been at it since 2013. (At least.) The Russian olis and western olis are trying to consolidate power and wealth for their own respective sides, so they're playing us all for fools, using the media, government, and calls of nationalism to bang the war drums and flirt with WW3.

Revolution is not romantic, nor ideal, but it maybe the best option to end the conflict either way. Best case scenario, (yet the least likely unfortunately,) would be that Ukrainian people and Russian people band as one and overthrow their own respective governments, then work together to weed out the oligarchs and nazis, and declare the region sovereign from foreign influence.

[EncryptedWriting]

This is a yes and no. I feel like we have all become so desensitized to it that the biggest issue on everyone's mind (in the USA and around me, at least) is "wow, gas prices are high."

Not the idea that we are literally about to enter ww3.

[authorvicomara]

fsarbolaez, your ideas relate directly or indirectly to the 1-4 points I listed in my first post above - which is why there likely won't be a quick end to this cruel madness and many more people will suffer and die.

The immense greed and selfishness of oligarchs and other overly rich people amazes me (in a bad way) - they have luxurious mansions, yachts, companies, etc worth of hundreds of billions, they have hundreds of billions stashed away in banks, investments, crypto, etc and it still is not enough for them. They literally have more money than they, their mistresses and their kids could spend in their lifetimes, and it still not is enough for them. They have to play sick Gods and rule over people (in a bad way) to inflate their sick egos and self-importance.

Where is that gene lamp when you need one... or five.

[fsarbolaez]

I'm sorry authorvicomara, I keep hearing too many people talk about Russia, like the removal of one country's leader, one government, one organization, would solve everything. The ruling classes are pushing an oversimplified narrative that presents a lack of choices to stop this madness, making WW3 come off like its somehow the best option available or inevitable. The ones that are largely behind this entire thing, appear to be redirecting attention away from their own doing, so to pick at the carcasses of whatever's left after all is done.
I'm not saying you, or anyone here necessarily, are falling for the ruse but it reminds that there are others who are. I hate that it appears to be working so well.

[authorvicomara]

Nothing to be sorry about, @fsarbolaez.

Nothing is simple and easy in this world.
Us average mortals can only hope that the evil sharks will take mercy on us while playing their cruel power games.

[arxianfall]

Nah I'm good.
Friend is fighting in Ukraine, and my country has borders with it.

[system]

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