TLDR: After much over analysis and hours spent collecting and calculating data, I decided to instead put faith in the people and guess a value larger than logic suggest.
cracks knuckles
Let’s get started.
Since this topic has been up, roughly 4 hours ago, I’ve been more or less keeping track of the stats, granted I got a little distracted in between. Here are the stats (pst time zone):
12:28 - 14,237,517
12:38 - 14,284,765 (about 4700/min)
01:48 - 14,631,932 (about 5000/min)
01:58 - 14,682,941 (about 5100/min)
02:08 - 14,750,753 (about 6800/min)
02:19 - 14,819,122 (about 6200/min)
02:28 - 14,876,783 (about 6400/min)
02:38 - 14,962,175 (about 8500/min!!!)
02:48 - 15,030,971!!! (about 6900/min)
03:08 - 15,151,651 (about 6000/min)
03:19 - 15,196,099 (about 4000/min)
03:49 - 15,280,584 (about 2800/min)
04:08 - 15,376,731 (about 5000/min)
04:18 - 15,427,706 (about 5100/min)
04:28 - 15,455,136 (about 2700/min)
04:38 - 15,477,665 (about 2300/min)
04:49 - 15,492,939 (about 1400/min)
04:58 - 15,509,668 (about 1900/min)
There were definitely errors on my part regarding these stats because I didn’t check them at the exact seconds but sometime within the minute ^_^’
duration: 4hr 30min (270 min)
inks given during duration: 1,272,151 ┐(‘~` )┌
avg ink/min over whole duration: about 4700/min
avg of avg ink/min: about 4750/min
At 5:10, inks: 15,557,937 let’s under round to 15,500,000 ink.
At those avg rates for the remaining 410 min after 5:10, we will get another 1,900,000~1,950,000 ink so let’s use 1,925,000.
15,500,000 + 1,925,000 = 17,425,000.
But people aren’t as simple as rates, and those behind the numbers are actual people giving inks to other people.
There’s so much to take into consideration when it comes to people (☆▽☆)
At this point, to make it easier for myself, we’ll separate people into a two categories:
- people who ran out of ink (or won’t be giving more due to reasons)
- people who will be giving ink until they can’t (probably will continue to farm ink)
Almost all supporters at the moment fall into the first category and more people will join as the night go on.
However, the avg inks given per supporter is only about 2700 (at 5:10).
Yet I know a chunk of people who gave more than 5x that avg amount and these people probably account for the majority of inks given.
The reason they are able to give so much is either:
1) bought inks to support creators
2) farm over a long period of time prior to
Though the number of these people might not be as big as the numbers who contribute around avg or below, their overall contribution is significantly large.
I can’t say for sure whether people will continue to buy inks or not 。゚(TヮT)゚。
But what I can say, however, is that it takes a lot of grit to farm that much ink and these people will probably keep farming until the event is over (not all but most I think) and continue to contribute.
But there’s a lot of reason why people would stop farming inks too.
Two most prominent ones:
- limited ads
- time zones
A very large chunk of tapas users are actually outside of the US. The inksgiving event takes place based on PST, thus around now it’s already really late for a lot of people. Unless they have a lot of free time on their hands and a messed up sleep schedule, (like me cough) they won’t be farming anymore.
I’ve also heard that ads availability improved as well, so some people might try to take advantage of this opportunity and earn ink while it lasts, but these numbers probably aren’t that big. Though I’ve also heard that Androids don’t get as much ads and these users might stop farming early.
In theory, the number of inks given will only decrease as the night goes on.
So the numbers will reach 17,000,000 if we are fortunate.
However, there’s more (✧ω✧)
The last Inksgiving/Tipping event was around a year ago (from what I heard, I wasn’t there to withness it). No one knows when the next one will be so people will definitely be taking advantage of it now. If people are still farming at the moment, they’ll likely throw all they have out before the end.
I think it might be pretty slow now, but within the last two hours, things might start to pick up again.
Another significant thing that I took note of is the # of total supporters. (๑˃ᴗ˂)ﻭ
Throughout the 270 min duration I collected data, there was an increase of 467 total supporters. And the number is still increasing!!! From 5:10 to 6:10 (1 hour) the amount of total supporters increased by 102!)
I say these additional supporters show potential.
Even though numbers and everything is nice, I like to also believe in the people who make up the community (´。• ᵕ •。`)
My final answer: 18,738,279
Overly optimistic probably, (considering there’s about 5 and a half hours left and most people are out of ink) but that’s okay (o˘◡˘o)
That was fun °˖✧◝(⁰▿⁰)◜✧˖°