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Nov 2018

Hey hi hello!

It's Michael. The Inksgiving event has been a tremendous amount of fun, and I just wanted to put together a really quick, lowkey contest for community members on the forums.

Inksgiving will officially come to a close at 12:00AM PST/PDT tonight and we're quickly approaching our 15 million ink drop goal.

So! With that being said, I'll be giving out a couple of prizes to those that can come closest to guessing the final ink count tallied up at midnight.

Please be as specific about the ink count as possible to make things easier on my end (i.e. 15,320,231 or 28,039,398).

The top 2 closest guesses will receive Tapas T-Shirts which are typically only given to staff members, and the next 3 closest guesses will receive a postcard signed by a few of the staff members (some of us, have really bad handwriting so this should be extra fun). Again, this is meant to be relatively lowkey and fun.

Please lock in your guesses prior to midnight!

Oh! And Happy Holidays :slight_smile:

LOL! And guesses after 11:00pm pst/pdt won't count. sorry!

Edit: will reach out to winners and random postcard giveaway winners after Inksgiving concludes!

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    Nov '18
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There are 144 replies with an estimated read time of 8 minutes.

pinned Nov 21, '18

A most excellent guess!

I'll send you a postcard regardless since you're the first one to respond.

17,000,001. But give someone else the t-shirt if I win. I have about 17,000,002 of them at home. :grimacing:

That's such a nice idea of you guys ;D

17,482,074

:bow: Sorry, staff members aren't allowed to participate. We'll have an internal guessing contest for staff members at the office. Haha.

:santa: What can we say, we're in the holiday spirit.

I-I-I guess...?

Thanks for the drawing! I'll send you a postcard too!

I mean assuming there's only one vote per person that'd be quite an achievement :open_mouth:

also

@michaelson EyYYy thanks! That's super generous!

This is ingenius and competitive and statistics majors gotta have the upper hand, ohoho!

I'm going to guess the magical, mythical, mellifluous number: 17,201,977.

Tried to do some math for this one... I'm going with 17,500,000.

30,000,000! LETS DOUBLE IT! Maybe unlikely, but I'm here for that optimism! :revolving_hearts:

I've been collecting data haphazardly in a text document since yesterday:

Tapas Inksgiving:
Amount / Time(EST) / Rate
(Nov. 21)
8,502,000 - 19:09:30
8,579,000 - 19:18:30 (+8555/min x 9min)
8,657,000 - 19:30:00 (6783/min x 11.5min)
8,789,000 - 19:42:30 (10560/min x 12.5min)
8,822,000 - 19:52:00 (3474/min x 9.5min)
8,894,000 - 20:02:30 (6857/min x 10.5min)
9,246,000 - 20:55:30 (6642/min x 53min)
(Nov. 22)
14,174,734 - 15:14:00 (4483/min x 1099.5min)
14,182,622 - 15:18:00 (1972/min x 4min)
14,198,068 - 15:22:00 (3862/min x 4min)
14,275,546 - 15:35:00 (5960/min x 13min)
14,310,763 - 15:46:00 (3202/min x 11min)
14,347,996 - 15:58:30 (2979/min x 12.5min)

Average rate is about 6490/min since beginning,
4700/min since around 7:00 p.m. yesterday (EST),
4100/min for the past hour or so.

A logarithmic pattern makes sense as the rate of ink giving drops over time due to people running out of ink. It looks like the rate is probably approaching ~4000/min.

Assuming an average rate of 4000/min from now until the end, I got a total of ~16,987,996, so that's my guess.

Yeah, sometimes it's fun to overthink stuff :slight_smile: